DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM EST

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-257).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -246 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -257.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
DeVonta Smith has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 19.0% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
DeVonta Smith's 60.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for wide receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
DeVonta Smith's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.6% to 71.7%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
DeVonta Smith has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus wideouts this year (63.1%).
The New York Giants defense has surrendered the 5th-least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.67 per game this year.

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