DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+171/-245).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +181 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to be a more important option in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (22.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.7% in games he has played).
DeVonta Smith's 59.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 87th percentile for wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
DeVonta Smith's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 61.2% to 75.6%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
DeVonta Smith has accrued far fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.