DeVonta Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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DeVonta Smith

NFL · Player Props

DeVonta Smith

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVonta Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-261).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -252 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -261.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DeVonta Smith to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (20.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.2% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
DeVonta Smith's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 61.2% to 77.5%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
DeVonta Smith has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
DeVonta Smith's 54.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 62.8.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 0.50 per game this year.

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