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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans

Devon Achane Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A running game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game.

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 4th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects Devon Achane to notch 16.0 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.

After accounting for 31.2% of his offense's carries last season, Devon Achane has been called on more in the running game this season, currently comprising 56.8%.

With a stellar record of 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (88th percentile), Devon Achane stands as one of the top pure rushers in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.1 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 56.5 plays per game.

The Dolphins have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing more favorable weather this week.

Devon Achane's rushing effectiveness has diminished this season, notching just 2.87 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.29 rate last season.

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