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Devon Achane

Devon Achane Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Devon Achane Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to run on 44.5% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

The Dolphins have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.

Devon Achane has been a more important option in his offense's ground game this year (41.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (31.2%).

The Patriots safeties grade out as the 30th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Devon Achane's 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a remarkable reduction in his running skills over last year's 69.0 mark.

Devon Achane's ground effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching a measly 3.99 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.35 mark last season.

Devon Achane's 3.02 yards-after-contact this season indicates a noteable drop-off in his rushing ability over last season's 4.94 figure.

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