Devon Achane Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Devon Achane

NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Devon Achane Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
Devon Achane has generated 82.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football when it comes to running backs (98th percentile).
Devon Achane's running effectiveness (9.07 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (99th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-least run-focused offense in the NFL (36.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
This year, the poor New York Jets run defense has been gouged for a massive 4.08 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 23rd-biggest rate in football.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

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