Devon Achane Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Devon Achane

NFL · Player Props

Devon Achane

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Devon Achane Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-most plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a staggering 60.1 per game on average).
The model projects Devon Achane to accumulate 6.1 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Devon Achane's 17.0% Target% this year marks a substantial growth in his passing offense volume over last year's 11.5% figure.
Devon Achane's 4.7 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching ability over last season's 2.5 rate.
Devon Achane's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 75.6% to 94.0%.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Dolphins being an enormous 8-point favorite this week.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.

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