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Devon Achane Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-139/+102).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -139.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Dolphins as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Miami's passing stats last year may be artificially deflated (and running stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with better conditions in this week's game.The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.2 per game) last year.The leading projections forecast Devon Achane to accumulate 4.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.Devon Achane has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 11.7% last year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to run just 62.8 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.The Miami Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.When it comes to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year.Devon Achane comes in as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in just 72.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 14th percentile.
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