Devin Singletary Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:31 PM EST

Analysis

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 44.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.83 seconds per play.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Devin Singletary has averaged 54.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (75th percentile).

Favors Under

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (22.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (44.9% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 93 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.