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Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Devin Singletary has averaged 55.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (77th percentile).

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (40.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.2% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.

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