Devin Singletary Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Devin Singletary Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-320).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -287 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -320.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Devin Singletary has run for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (80th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 38.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (38.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.9% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 8th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.