Devin Singletary Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Devin Singletary

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:16 PM EST

Analysis

Devin Singletary Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Devin Singletary has rushed for 0.30 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (75th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most TDs in football (1.60 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 38.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his team's running game near the goal line this week (47.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.1% in games he has played).

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