Devin Singletary Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Devin Singletary

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Devin Singletary Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
Devin Singletary has been among the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 2.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (85.2%) versus RBs this year (85.2%).
The Buffalo Bills O-line has given their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
Devin Singletary has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, playing on 67.3% of snaps compared to just 56.1% last year.

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