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Devin Singletary Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-114).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to notch 3.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.Devin Singletary has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 67.5% of snaps compared to just 56.1% last year.The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.Devin Singletary's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 84.7% to 80.0%.
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