Devin Singletary Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Devin Singletary

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Devin Singletary Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+106/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack this week (42.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.8% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.

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