Devin Singletary Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Devin Singletary

NFL · Player Props

Devin Singletary

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Devin Singletary Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+114/-157).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 29.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (37.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.9% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 8th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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