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Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary Carries
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Devin Singletary Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be much less involved in his offense's running game this week (42.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.3% in games he has played).

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