Devin Duvernay Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Devin Duvernay

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Devin Duvernay Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Devin Duvernay has been much less involved in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for just 22.3% of snaps compared to 68.2% last year.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Devin Duvernay has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching a terrific 73.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Browns pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.