Devin Duvernay Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Devin Duvernay

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Devin Duvernay Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+391/-819).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -814 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -819.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 67.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Duvernay to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (16.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.7% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Devin Duvernay has been among the best possession receivers in football, hauling in a terrific 82.2% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
The New England Patriots defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 117.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in football.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.7%) to wideouts since the start of last season (60.7%).
The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 6th-least passing touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.