DeVante Parker Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
DeVante Parker's 51.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 84th percentile for wideouts.
DeVante Parker has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
DeVante Parker has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, catching a mere 54.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile among WRs
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (64.1%).
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.