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DeVante Parker

DeVante Parker Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

DeVante Parker Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

DeVante Parker's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 55.9% to 62.7%.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

DeVante Parker's 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 58.3.

DeVante Parker's receiving talent has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 2.3 yards per game compared to 4.5 last year.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

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