DeVante Parker Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+111/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
DeVante Parker's 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 88th percentile for WRs.
DeVante Parker has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
DeVante Parker has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 55.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 8th percentile among WRs
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).