DeVante Parker Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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DeVante Parker

NFL · Player Props

DeVante Parker

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

DeVante Parker Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+396/-838).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +413 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +396.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
DeVante Parker's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 55.9% to 62.7%.
The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 5th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 1.09 per game this year.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
DeVante Parker has notched far fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (91.0 per game).
DeVante Parker's 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 58.3.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

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