Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's unit has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 52.7% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Desmond Ridder to attempt 32.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.

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