Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects Desmond Ridder to throw 29.4 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
This year, the strong Houston Texans defense has conceded a feeble 0.50 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in the NFL.

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