Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:26 PM EST

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-260/+210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 9th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.50 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Desmond Ridder to attempt 31.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
The Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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