Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+195/-255).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football in the red zone (50.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Falcons.
Desmond Ridder has attempted just 28.1 throws per game this year, ranking in the 21st percentile among QBs.
With a bad 62.6% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, Desmond Ridder ranks as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.

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