Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+215/-305).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -295 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -305.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football in the red zone (50.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
This year, the fierce Saints defense has yielded a puny 63.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New Orleans's collection of CBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.

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