Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+188/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 51.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.

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