Desmond Ridder TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 44.0% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.8%).

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