Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 1:56 AM EST

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
Desmond Ridder's ground effectiveness has been refined this season, notching 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.10 figure last season.
The Tampa Bay defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects Desmond Ridder to garner 4.3 rush attempts this week, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 86.0 per game) vs. the Buccaneers defense this year.

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