Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Desmond Ridder has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.76 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
The Green Bay Packers defense owns the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding 5.07 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Desmond Ridder has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this year (0.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (10.9%).
The Green Bay Packers defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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