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Desmond Ridder

Desmond Ridder Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Desmond Ridder Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+321/-592).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -563 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -592.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 56.0% red zone run rate.

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.

The New Orleans Saints defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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