Desmond Ridder Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Desmond Ridder

NFL · Player Props

Desmond Ridder

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Desmond Ridder Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 180.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 7.02 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in football.

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