Deshaun Watson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Deshaun Watson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-205).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 66.1 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in football versus the Cardinals defense this year (73.8% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the shaky Cardinals defense has allowed a colossal 1.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Arizona's group of CBs has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's line implies an extreme running game script for the Browns, who are overwhelmingly favored by 13.5 points.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Deshaun Watson to throw 28.8 passes this week, on balance: the fewest out of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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