Deshaun Watson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in football against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 2nd-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.68 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 29.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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