Deshaun Watson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Deshaun Watson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-245/+180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Browns, who are -6-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 26.81 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The model projects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 54.4% red zone pass rate.
In this week's contest, Deshaun Watson is forecasted by the model to wind up with the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.0.
Deshaun Watson has been one of the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
This year, the imposing Ravens defense has allowed a feeble 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-best rate in football.

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