Deshaun Watson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+143/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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