Deshaun Watson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+159/-224).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (75.1%).
The Cleveland Browns O-line has given their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 53.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.