Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to accrue 5.8 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (19.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.8% in games he has played).
Deshaun Watson has picked up 24.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (80th percentile).

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 10th-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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