Deshaun Watson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+313/-568).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +329 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +313.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 8th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (20.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.6% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.