Deshaun Watson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Passing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 207.5 (-144/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 207.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 207.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has given their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.7 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in football against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.2%).