Deshaun Watson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Passing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 144.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 147.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 144.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has afforded their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 26.4 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the least yards in football (just 203.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.