Deshaun Watson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Deshaun Watson

NFL · Player Props

Deshaun Watson

QB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 10:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Deshaun Watson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -163 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 8th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to earn 6.4 rush attempts this week, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (21.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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