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DeSean Jackson

DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens

DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 58.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.

The Baltimore Ravens O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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