Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 2, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Titans as the 3rd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 49.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Derrick Henry to notch 21.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry checks in as one of the best running backs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.25 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 86th percentile.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in football (136 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's collection of DEs has been awful this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.
After accounting for 80.1% of his team's run game usage last year, Derrick Henry has had a smaller role in the ground game this year, now sitting at only 69.6%.
Derrick Henry's 72.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year marks a noteable drop-off in his rushing talent over last year's 91.0 rate.

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