Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 62.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to accrue 18.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
After taking on 80.1% of his team's rush attempts last year, Derrick Henry has been less involved in the ground game this year, now taking on just 69.8%.
Derrick Henry has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (91.0).

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