Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 73.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 89.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Derrick Henry is expected by the predictive model to land in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 18.5 carries.
The Houston defensive tackles grade out as the worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Titans to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 64.3 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.5 plays per game.
After comprising 80.1% of his offense's run game usage last season, Derrick Henry has been less involved in the rushing attack this season, currently comprising just 67.3%.
Derrick Henry's 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season conveys a noteable diminishment in his rushing talent over last season's 91.0 mark.
The Houston Texans defense has produced the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 3.61 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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