Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 74.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is indicated by the Titans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
The leading projections forecast the Titans as the most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This week, Derrick Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 21.4 rush attempts.
With an exceptional total of 3.16 yards after contact (80th percentile), Derrick Henry has been among the toughest RBs in football this year.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (141 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (a mere 52.7 per game on average).
Derrick Henry has been much less involved in his team's run game this season (69.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).
Derrick Henry has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).

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