Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to accumulate 18.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Derrick Henry checks in as one of the leading RBs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.19 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The projections expect the Titans to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has been a less important option in his team's ground game this year (69.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (80.1%).

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